Intelligence report
Pikachu Trophy Promo
1998 Japanese Promo · Promo · PSA 9 · Holo Rare
WatchModel tcgs-v1.0.0 · 2026-09-24
54
Quality score
30
Opportunity score
62
Data confidence
Fair value
£27,447
Range £24,358 – £30,536 from 5 comparables
Observed transactions
Outliers excludedAcquisition discipline
- Current market price
- £30,464
- Best available price
- £37,375
- Discount to fair value
- -0.4%
- Required discount
- 0.2%
- Maximum acquisition price
- £21,398
- Opening offer
- £19,258
- Target offer
- £20,542
- Maximum hammer
- £17,441
The maximum acquisition price is fair value less the discount the model requires for illiquidity, volatility and data uncertainty. It is a discipline rule, not a prediction.
Component scores
Value0
Scarcity58
Demand24
Liquidity16
Momentum42
Stability69
Grade quality50
Structural97
Long-term strength80
Data quality62
Risk penalties applied
- Data confidence of 62% limits precision−0.6
- All observed sales come from a single venue−3.0
- Thin transaction market over the last year−3.0
Thesis
Supporting
Risks
- Available price is 36.2% above estimated fair value
- Only 2 recorded sales in the last 12 months
- Data confidence limited to 62%
- Data confidence of 62% limits precision
- All observed sales come from a single venue
- Thin transaction market over the last year
Population at grade
- At grade
- 96
- 12m growth
- +4.3%
- Above grade
- 7.7%
Liquidity
- Band
- Very Low
- Sales (12m)
- 2
- Sales (90d)
- 1
- Median gap between sales
- 219 days
- Active listings
- 1
- Est. days to liquidate
- 342
- fixed · dealer£37,375
Recent comparables
| Date | Venue | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Heritage | auction | £30,464 |
| 2025-10-28 | Heritage | fixed | £27,757 |
| 2025-05-09 | Heritage | auction | £25,200 |
| 2024-12-24 | Heritage | fixed | £22,162 |
| 2024-03-26 | Heritage | fixed | £23,256 |
| 2023-09-16 | Heritage | auction | £16,013 |
No investment is currently being offered or accepted through this platform. Any indication of interest is non-binding. This report is an analytical opinion generated from illustrative demonstration data. It is not a valuation, appraisal, price prediction or financial advice.