Intelligence report
Monkey D. Luffy Manga Rare
2022 Romance Dawn · Manga Rare · PSA 10 · Chase
WatchModel tcgs-v1.0.0 · 2026-09-24
56
Quality score
45
Opportunity score
73
Data confidence
Fair value
£6,546
Range £5,737 – £7,356 from 45 comparables
Observed transactions
Outliers excludedAcquisition discipline
- Current market price
- £6,649
- Best available price
- £6,732
- Discount to fair value
- -0.0%
- Required discount
- 0.2%
- Maximum acquisition price
- £5,156
- Opening offer
- £4,641
- Target offer
- £4,950
- Maximum hammer
- £4,128
The maximum acquisition price is fair value less the discount the model requires for illiquidity, volatility and data uncertainty. It is a discipline rule, not a prediction.
Component scores
Value44
Scarcity37
Demand50
Liquidity53
Momentum58
Stability42
Grade quality82
Structural79
Long-term strength28
Data quality73
Risk penalties applied
- Population at grade grew 19.8% over 12 months−3.0
- Elevated realised price volatility−0.3
- Abnormal recent price behaviour — review required−4.0
Thesis
Supporting
- 14 verified sales in the last 12 months (medium liquidity)
- Selected grade is materially scarce relative to the card's grade distribution
- 45 comparable sales, effective sample 6.18
Risks
- Volatility risk of 58 on realised prices
- Supply pressure: population up 19.8% over 12 months
- Population at grade grew 19.8% over 12 months
- Elevated realised price volatility
- Abnormal recent price behaviour — review required
Population at grade
- At grade
- 1,220
- 12m growth
- +19.8%
- Above grade
- 0.0%
Liquidity
- Band
- Medium
- Sales (12m)
- 14
- Sales (90d)
- 2
- Median gap between sales
- 22 days
- Active listings
- 2
- Est. days to liquidate
- 46
- fixed · dealer£6,732
- auction · private£7,208
Recent comparables
| Date | Venue | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | eBay | auction | £6,425 |
| 2026-06-27 | eBay | auction | £6,630 |
| 2026-05-31 | Cardmarket | auction | £6,787 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cardmarket | private | £6,668 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cardmarket | private | £6,775 |
| 2026-04-02 | Cardmarket | auction | £6,539 |
| 2026-03-13 | PWCC | auction | £5,975 |
| 2026-02-05 | Cardmarket | auction | £5,777 |
| 2026-01-21 | Cardmarket | private | £6,277 |
| 2026-01-05 | Cardmarket | fixed | £5,655 |
| 2025-12-08 | PWCC | private | £5,759 |
| 2025-11-20 | eBay | auction | £5,292 |
No investment is currently being offered or accepted through this platform. Any indication of interest is non-binding. This report is an analytical opinion generated from illustrative demonstration data. It is not a valuation, appraisal, price prediction or financial advice.