Intelligence report
Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare
2023 Pokémon 151 · SIR · PSA 10 · Chase
WatchModel tcgs-v1.0.0 · 2026-08-08
53
Quality score
52
Opportunity score
90
Data confidence
Fair value
£1,473
Range £1,432 – £1,514 from 185 comparables
Observed transactions
Outliers excludedAcquisition discipline
- Current market price
- £1,441
- Best available price
- £1,421
- Discount to fair value
- +0.0%
- Required discount
- 0.2%
- Maximum acquisition price
- £1,238
- Opening offer
- £1,114
- Target offer
- £1,189
- Maximum hammer
- £917
The maximum acquisition price is fair value less the discount the model requires for illiquidity, volatility and data uncertainty. It is a discipline rule, not a prediction.
Component scores
Value57
Scarcity17
Demand67
Liquidity79
Momentum34
Stability73
Grade quality60
Structural58
Long-term strength22
Data quality90
Risk penalties applied
- Population at grade grew 26.8% over 12 months−4.0
Thesis
Supporting
- Available price sits 3.5% below estimated fair value
- 61 verified sales in the last 12 months (high liquidity)
- 185 comparable sales, effective sample 21.43
Risks
- Supply pressure: population up 26.8% over 12 months
- Population at grade grew 26.8% over 12 months
Population at grade
- At grade
- 9,000
- 12m growth
- +26.8%
- Above grade
- 0.0%
Liquidity
- Band
- High
- Sales (12m)
- 61
- Sales (90d)
- 14
- Median gap between sales
- 6 days
- Active listings
- 3
- Est. days to liquidate
- 23
- fixed · dealer£1,421
- auction · private£1,465
- fixed · private£1,523
Recent comparables
| Date | Venue | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | PWCC | auction | £1,439 |
| 2026-07-23 | PWCC | fixed | £1,444 |
| 2026-07-20 | eBay | auction | £1,428 |
| 2026-07-10 | TCGplayer | auction | £1,436 |
| 2026-07-05 | eBay | auction | £1,462 |
| 2026-06-30 | TCGplayer | fixed | £1,447 |
| 2026-06-24 | TCGplayer | fixed | £1,496 |
| 2026-06-19 | eBay | auction | £1,515 |
| 2026-06-11 | PWCC | auction | £1,514 |
| 2026-06-09 | TCGplayer | fixed | £1,480 |
| 2026-05-31 | eBay | auction | £1,451 |
| 2026-05-27 | TCGplayer | auction | £1,516 |
No investment is currently being offered or accepted through this platform. Any indication of interest is non-binding. This report is an analytical opinion generated from illustrative demonstration data. It is not a valuation, appraisal, price prediction or financial advice.