Intelligence report
Base Set Charizard
1999 Base Set · Unlimited · PSA 9 · Holo Rare
WatchModel tcgs-v1.0.0 · 2026-09-24
62
Quality score
69
Opportunity score
83
Data confidence
Fair value
£4,133
Range £3,922 – £4,344 from 74 comparables
Observed transactions
Outliers excludedAcquisition discipline
- Current market price
- £4,160
- Best available price
- £3,066
- Discount to fair value
- +0.3%
- Required discount
- 0.2%
- Maximum acquisition price
- £3,491
- Opening offer
- £3,142
- Target offer
- £3,351
- Maximum hammer
- £2,763
The maximum acquisition price is fair value less the discount the model requires for illiquidity, volatility and data uncertainty. It is a discipline rule, not a prediction.
Component scores
Value100
Scarcity21
Demand59
Liquidity62
Momentum58
Stability75
Grade quality71
Structural96
Long-term strength62
Data quality83
Thesis
Supporting
- Available price sits 25.8% below estimated fair value
- 22 verified sales in the last 12 months (medium liquidity)
- Selected grade is materially scarce relative to the card's grade distribution
- 74 comparable sales, effective sample 9.16
Risks
Population at grade
- At grade
- 6,080
- 12m growth
- +5.4%
- Above grade
- 4.1%
Liquidity
- Band
- Medium
- Sales (12m)
- 22
- Sales (90d)
- 3
- Median gap between sales
- 14 days
- Active listings
- 3
- Est. days to liquidate
- 35
- fixed · dealer£3,066
- auction · private£4,284
- fixed · private£4,578
Recent comparables
| Date | Venue | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | PWCC | fixed | £4,185 |
| 2026-07-15 | PWCC | auction | £4,365 |
| 2026-06-29 | Goldin | auction | £4,106 |
| 2026-06-19 | eBay | auction | £4,167 |
| 2026-05-31 | Goldin | auction | £4,038 |
| 2026-05-21 | PWCC | auction | £4,154 |
| 2026-05-05 | Cardmarket | private | £4,096 |
| 2026-04-20 | eBay | fixed | £4,160 |
| 2026-04-01 | Goldin | private | £4,243 |
| 2026-03-23 | Cardmarket | auction | £3,976 |
| 2026-03-03 | eBay | fixed | £3,885 |
| 2026-02-25 | Goldin | fixed | £4,082 |
No investment is currently being offered or accepted through this platform. Any indication of interest is non-binding. This report is an analytical opinion generated from illustrative demonstration data. It is not a valuation, appraisal, price prediction or financial advice.