Intelligence report
1st Edition Base Set Charizard
1999 Base Set · 1st Edition · PSA 8 · Holo Rare
WatchModel tcgs-v1.0.0 · 2026-09-24
59
Quality score
52
Opportunity score
80
Data confidence
Fair value
£27,343
Range £26,136 – £28,550 from 26 comparables
Observed transactions
Outliers excludedAcquisition discipline
- Current market price
- £27,945
- Best available price
- £27,560
- Discount to fair value
- -0.0%
- Required discount
- 0.2%
- Maximum acquisition price
- £22,689
- Opening offer
- £20,420
- Target offer
- £21,782
- Maximum hammer
- £18,499
The maximum acquisition price is fair value less the discount the model requires for illiquidity, volatility and data uncertainty. It is a discipline rule, not a prediction.
Component scores
Value48
Scarcity31
Demand46
Liquidity43
Momentum43
Stability81
Grade quality53
Structural98
Long-term strength80
Data quality80
Thesis
Supporting
- Population at grade grew only 3.7% over 12 months
- 8 verified sales in the last 12 months (low liquidity)
- 26 comparable sales, effective sample 6.52
Risks
Population at grade
- At grade
- 1,064
- 12m growth
- +3.7%
- Above grade
- 18.3%
Liquidity
- Band
- Low
- Sales (12m)
- 8
- Sales (90d)
- 1
- Median gap between sales
- 42 days
- Active listings
- 2
- Est. days to liquidate
- 77
- fixed · dealer£27,560
- auction · private£29,680
Recent comparables
| Date | Venue | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | PWCC | auction | £27,746 |
| 2026-06-04 | Goldin | fixed | £27,945 |
| 2026-04-20 | PWCC | auction | £28,330 |
| 2026-03-08 | Heritage | fixed | £26,026 |
| 2026-02-19 | PWCC | auction | £26,114 |
| 2025-12-09 | Heritage | auction | £25,889 |
| 2025-11-18 | Heritage | fixed | £25,285 |
| 2025-09-26 | Heritage | auction | £25,347 |
| 2025-08-21 | Goldin | auction | £24,073 |
| 2025-06-30 | Goldin | auction | £24,414 |
| 2025-05-24 | Goldin | auction | £24,888 |
| 2025-04-20 | PWCC | fixed | £26,236 |
No investment is currently being offered or accepted through this platform. Any indication of interest is non-binding. This report is an analytical opinion generated from illustrative demonstration data. It is not a valuation, appraisal, price prediction or financial advice.